There is a lot to get our heads around, but obviously the most drastic, and most controversial, change is the move to multihulls.

The AC72 class – a super high tech wing-masted catamaran – represents a new era of America’s Cup sailing. At this stage, I guess I’m a little cautious about the move, but also hugely optimistic.

For a Team New Zealand supporter the initial reaction may have been “bugger, we’ve been gazzumped”.

Emirates Team NZ were probably a bit disappointed with the announcement, although they wouldn’t be surprised.

There’s no doubt they have dominated big-boats, whether it be the America’s Cup version 5s or TP52s, everything they’ve touched over the past couple of years, they’ve won.

But if they want to continue to play the game it’s going to have to be in multihulls, that’s the deal.

So all of Team NZ’s focus must now be on transferring their success in the monohulls to these high-tech catamarans, which I think are going to be pretty exciting.

There’s no doubt as things stand now, BMW Oracle have a huge advantage in that they have experience with the wing sail technology. But I’m certain Team NZ have the ability to bridge that gap and be competitive.

What they’ve got in that organisation is the ability to adapt and continually reinvent themselves.

Their track record in terms of prioritising, designing and then producing a great racing boat is pretty impeccable, so I don’t have any doubts that they have the capacity to pull it off in that timeframe and be very, very competitive. But they’ll need to adapt their strategies and their priorities.

There is a bit of concern out there over whether we have the expertise and experience in multihull sailing to pull it off. It will be interesting to see how well the existing people in key roles – like Dean Barker – adapt.

It’ll certainly be a challenge for Barker, but I’m sure it will be a challenge he’ll enjoy. But I’m expecting come 2013 we could see a vastly different make-up to the Team NZ crew. Physically, these boats will be extremely demanding to sail and will call for strong, agile sailors who are quick-thinkers.

But first and foremost you have to get a boat built, so the most important factor initially will be getting the right people for the design phase.

This technology calls for high-level engineering expertise in the area of high-performance aerodynamic, hydrodynamic-type stuff.

You have to design, build and test all that complex componentry, so that is where the initial big push has to be. If you were going down the traditionalist line I guess there may be some disappointment with the decision to take it super high-tech.

I was lucky enough to be at the 33rd America’s Cup this year and I thought what BMW Oracle and Alinghi both came up with was out of this world. Seeing those boats hit top speed was a fantastic spectacle, so I’m not surprised Oracle have decided to stick with multihulls.

The sailing fraternity can sometimes be a little bit resistant to change, but I actually thought the version 5 might have done one America’s Cup too many, so therefore the change feels like a big change.

If the 32nd America’s Cup in 2007 had been in a more modern-type boat, the drive for change might not have been so strong.

In many ways the America’s Cup had become a bit old and staid, and you’ve got to believe now it will freshen up and inject a bit of excitement back in to the event.

With a couple of court cases still pending next week’s one on one showdown between Alinghi and BMW Oracle may not bring an end to the whole sorry saga, but make no mistake – this is progress. For the challengers like Team New Zealand it finally gives them some sort of certainty – they know there’s going to be a race and they can now see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Of course if Alinghi wins BMW Oracle will have them back in court, and probably the other way around as well. But even that aside, it’s no longer years away, it’s now months away that the likes of Grant Dalton will have something to aim at, and I think that’s important.

The bitter legal wrangles between Alinghi and BMW Oracle over the past few years has been undoubtedly the bleakest period in the long history of the America’s Cup. And for those that are passionate about the sport it’s absolutely gutting that there hasn’t been an opportunity for the challengers. But history also tells us there just may be a positive to all of this.

If we look back to the 1988 Big Boat Challenge, which like this current situation, was an absolute mess, but from that transpired the International America’s Cup Class (IACC) rule. That came about after all the syndicates and designers of that time got together once the dust had settled and developed some parameters and rules that will serve the America’s Cup well. That lasted very well for the class right through to 2007 and had 20 years of perhaps the best America’s Cup yachting there had ever been with an open challenger series.

I’m hoping that at the end of this we’ll see another evolution. Let’s hope whoever the defender and whoever the challenging syndicates are can come up with a rule that will form the basis of hopefully something pretty neat for the America’s Cup for the next 20 years. Because for me, I think time was up for the IACC class – it does not reflect the technology of today.

On another positive note, while endless court cases and appeals have been extremely frustrating, the two boats that have evolved for this regatta is certainly something special. It will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen before and as a yachting enthusiast you really have to marvel at both boats. What the designers and builders have come up with is phenomenal, it reflects the very, very best of modern day design and technology. And a lot of that is down to the Kiwi expertise on both teams.

If you’re going to compare the two, Alinghi appears to have the finesse, it’s a beautiful looking boat and I’m sure it’s blisteringly quick. Oracle on the other hand is a brute of a boat and really, really grunty. It’s a beast. While these two boats are equally impressive, I don’t believe it will necessarily be a close fought series. The two boats are so radically different and it looks like weather is going to play huge part in who is successful. If the wind is in the lighter range, the Alinghi boat is looking pretty good, while USA 17 is likely to perform best in fresher breezes.

Another big determining factor will be reliability. You’re not going out for 20 minutes and screaming around at 30 knots, these things have to sail for four hours. We’ve already seen there’s been a lot of gear-breakages – not gear breakages that will stop them from sailing, but gear breakages that will stop these boats performing at their optimum. We are in for an intriguing week.

Alinghi went into the America’s Cup believing they were going to blow away the challenger. It is not the case.

Alinghi will now know they are in for a scrap, which will be different for the Kiwis on Alinghi who have always been on a faster boat.

We have now seen some chinks in Alinghi’s armour, namely their decision-making and the design of their spinnakers which has shown a few flaws.

For Team New Zealand, their defeats in the challenger series have made them stronger and were probably good for them.

Alinghi are not used to losing and I have no doubt they will come back. But if the wind continues to be a bit fluky, the Kiwis are match-hardened and ready.

Alinghi are now looking over their shoulders. When New Zealand got that wind shift up the first beat yesterday Alinghi helmsman Ed Baird looked over his shoulder and went “Oh f***”. You know that is a negative thought, you know that it is affecting them.

The work of Team New Zealand strategist Ray Davies and windspotter Adam Beashel in terms of their role in the afterguard and getting that pass in the final run yesterday was huge.

Beashel and Davies complement each other. In the final cup pre-regatta last year Davies was the most valuable player in the afterguard and that has only been enhanced.

Team New Zealand’s weather call yesterday was spot on.

It was always going to be a difficult day for both teams but Team New Zealand’s weatherman Roger Badham nailed the first shift.

Off the line the Kiwis wanted the right and it was a must right.

They lost the start to get the right.

In the first three races the weather teams have won the first crosses. Alinghi won the first two and Team New Zealand won yesterday’s by miles.

At the top mark Alinghi were 1min 23sec behind. As you would expect from Alinghi they didn’t chuck the towel in on the downwind.

The New Zealanders were forced into a position by the weather to make an error at the bottom mark. They made a late call to change what mark they rounded which resulted in an error.

Mid bowman Richard Meacham fell in. He was going out to release the tack to let the sail go from the end of the spinnaker and he went into the drink.

It would have been an absolute calamity had he fallen in but he did hang on, which was pretty huge.

From there the take-down was an absolute mess. The spinnaker got caught over the top of the genoa sheet. They did well to not destroy the gennaker, obviously they like that one.

Pitman Barry McKay was treating it like a baby: it would have been very easy to get a knife out and cut it free.

Then they did two tacks and it still didn’t clear so they had to cut the jib sheet.

They had a lot going on to save that sail and to free it. All of that meant they were compromised and handicapped.

The calmness of the boat, the routines they operate all got upset. Alinghi’s pass spanned from the botch-up at the bottom mark.

The Swiss team made the New Zealanders play their game even though the Kiwis were still ahead, which compounded into yet another lead change.

Then on the final downwind I was quite dumbfounded how much separation Alinghi gave the Kiwis. At one stage there was over a kilometre and a half between them.

It took 8 degrees of windshift and New Zealand got back in front.

If Alinghi lose another one then the momentum will be clearly swinging in New Zealand’s favour.

Well Valencia was pumping with excited Kiwis today.

The wool shed, packed to the rim, was going off (pics here).

It was a great start. Barker was brilliant. He was really strong at the start. Team New Zealand wanted to start on the right and Alinghi wanted to start on the left.

On that first beat Alinghi got ahead through speed and a bit of pressure to leeward. Alinghi might have a had little click of speed upwind but nothing major.

Team New Zealand’s come back came in the second beat. If Alinghi had not made a mistake they probably would not have got past but they got themselves in a position where they were close enough to pounce if Alinghi slipped up.

How it unfolded was that Alinghi were sailing quite loose. When you are fast you do tend to be a little bit loose and a little bit casual.

At the bottom gate the teams went around different marks. The Kiwis took a little gain from doing that. When they came back together Team New Zealand had come back to within a length of the Swiss.
Alinghi then tacked to leeward. When Ed Baird did the tack it was a bit of spinning tack, it wasn’t a smooth tack and as a result it slowed the boat down. That opened up a very small opportunity and the New Zealanders took it.

So it’s 1-all. There is now a lay day before race three on Tuesday night NZT.

The New Zealanders will be competitive. How competitive? We’ll just have to wait and see.

There has been a lot of discussion about whether Team New Zealand have saved some gear for the final.

I am not sure. You may see some new little things, like the winch pods we saw in the Louis Vuitton final, but they will be looking to refine things. And if they do bring some new stuff, it will be very subtle.

It looks to me that the big bits were probably locked in place before the team left Auckland.

Probably the biggest area for both teams will be sails. New sails are faster than old ones, so expect to see plenty of new ones in the match.

Team New Zealand could remode the boat – change the keel, rudder, winglets, fin and so on. They have a couple of different bulb shapes. So far they have stuck with the slightly shorter one with the New Zealand flag on it. They have switched the bulbs on the boats over the past few days.

Shorter, fatter ones tend to be better in lighter air. They do have a longer bulb, which has a lower centre of gravity. The downside to them is they have a tendency to pitch a bit more.

Predicting what the weather is going to do will be crucial. Team New Zealand’s weather man, Roger “clouds” Badham, is sure to go even greyer.

Working out where to pitch yourself against the opposition involves at lot of analysing your opponent across the water. Team New Zealand would have watched Alinghi race Luna Rossa. The Italians took a couple of races off Alinghi.

Some races were close, others weren’t. In one race Alinghi cleaned them out but in another Luna Rossa cleaned out Alinghi.

What can be taken from that? It is hard to tell. You have to look at what sails they were using, the crew sailing – all the factors. However, it did appear Alinghi were keen to work on prestarts.

Team New Zealand will have some ideas of where they want to be in relation to the Swiss boat. That might be a bit different from where they wanted to be in relation to Luna Rossa.

It is one thing to optimise your boat to what you want yourself, and another to optimise it in relation to your opposition. It comes down to trade-offs. The Kiwis look quick downwind, so they might trade off some of that.

They are not going to make any big breakthroughs now. They are what they are.

This was never going to be a mission for the faint-hearted. In a game where secrecy is everything, we knew it could get dirty.

Nevertheless, it was our duty to find out what Team New Zealand are up against in SUI100.

Locating the Alinghi boats through the thick haze off the Valencia coast nearly thwarted the spying mission before it began.

You’d think it impossible to lose two giant 24-metre America’s Cup yachts with mainsails the size of jumbo jets’ wings. Well, think again.

But the haze had its advantages. “We’ll use it as camouflage,” the Maxwell Smart impersonator said. The mission started like a trip down memory lane.

With a 12-metre regatta taking place in Valencia, there was dear old KZ7, the boat that got New Zealand through to the challenger series final in 1987. Not far away was Freedom, the 1980 America’s Cup winner. It was all quite moving.

Anyway, no time for reminiscing, we were on a very important mission.

After putting around for what seemed like ages, we saw the bright red spinnakers of Emirates Team New Zealand billowing out in the distance.

Pity it wasn’t our own country’s team we were spying on, at least we would have actually located them.

Just when hope was fading, the haze parted and there they were. SUI91 and SUI100, spinnakers up and powering straight towards us . “Um Maxwell? … “

The next dilemma was to establish which was which. SUI91 did have 91 on it mainsail. But that could have been a trick. We certainly weren’t falling for that. No siree.

But we figured that because tactician Brad Butterworth and helmsman Ed Baird were on the other boat, that was the rocketship. The great SUI100.

Thundering along in extremely light conditions, one of the first things you notice about the Swiss boats is how good looking they are. They glide through the water effortlessly. Team New Zealand boss Grant Dalton always says a beautiful boat is usually a fast one. Alinghi skipper Brad Butterworth always says a faster boat usually wins the America’s Cup.

Like the New Zealand boats, the Swiss pair look like clones of each other. Performance wise they are probably also like the Kiwis boats and are evenly matched. But they are quite different from the New Zealand boats.

The Alinghi hulls are quite U-shaped whereas the New Zealand boats are very slab sided and quite flat across the bottom. U-shape sections tend to be designed for 12 knots or more.

The hull shape of the Team New Zealand boats suggest they’re optimised for between 8-12 knots.

The volume in the Alinghi boats is probably as far forward as Team New Zealand’s, maybe even further because of those U sections.

That equates to more waterline length and stops the bow from pitching up and down.

The Alinghi masts appear to be a couple of hundred millimetres wider than the New Zealand ones at the deck which might give them more stability.

As they eased past it was clear Alinghi’s two gennakers were quite different. One was essentially a deeper sail, the other one was a lighter sail and was smaller in the head. Maybe they were testing.

From our spying position, SUI91 was leading SUI100 downwind.

Then disaster struck for the rocketship. As SUI100 gybed, the spinnaker got caught on a jumper tearing the sail in two.

What we suspect was SUI91 rounded the mark well ahead.

We didn’t really see the boats upwind too much because the Swiss, who had clearly clicked onto the fact they were being followed – or more likely, wanted to evaluate performance – aborted the race.

But from what we saw SUI100 is probably not going to lean over much, unlike the narrow NZL92 which heels over so much at times it looks like it’s going to roll over.

It looks like SUI100 was using a lot of waterline length. More waterline length normally equates to more boat speed. Short boats don’t go that fast, long boats do.

When NZL92 heels over it picks up a lot of waterline length. The waterline length on the Kiwi and Swiss boats look about the same.

Alinghi’s masts look good. They look pretty stiff and are very detailed in terms of spreader attachments and end cup fittings where the rods go through. It looks like they’ve put lots of thought into reducing windage with every piece of their rig.

It was hard to tell if Alinghi’s rigs were twisting any more than the Kiwi rigs.

The Swiss rigs have three spreaders as opposed to Team New Zealand’s four. It probably means their masts are thicker in section than the Kiwi ones, especially around the point where the forestay connects at the top. The trade off for fewer spreaders is that you have to have bigger sections and bigger rods. It means less drag on the mast, but then you need more weight in the rig to maintain strength.

On this occasion the Swiss were also sailing with jumpers on their rigs. They also have jumper-less rigs.

Alinghi’s sails also looked impressive in terms of the construction, the layout of the fibres and attention to detail.

Feeling brave, we eased our way over towards SUI100. We were so close we could almost have had a yarn with Butterworth while he sat on the side having a feed.

Our mission was to check out where the shrouds connect to the deck. The shrouds are the cables or rods which support the mast sideways.

Rumour has it the Swiss have engineered a way to connect the forces of their rig to their keel fin, to help stiffen it during racing. Something which could give them a crucial speed edge.

Where the shrouds connected looked a bit odd. The cables looked like they were going through the deck but it was hard to verify. Because we can’t see what is happening under the deck we will never know.

Just as we were repositioning, an Alinghi tow boat came barrelling towards us, hooked up SUI100 and they were off. “But wait! We’re not finished we just need to see … “

So what did we ascertain from our spying mission?

SUI91 and SUI100 are nice looking boats and quite different from the black boats in hull shape, heel angle, mast.

Like the New Zealand boats Alinghi have paid a lot of attention to detail.

SUI91 and SUI100 appear to be quite even in performance.

But is SUI100 faster than NZL92?

There was nothing to suggest it would be, but until race one we simply won’t know.

They have rotated Ed Baird and Peter Holmberg since Russell Coutts left the syndicate in 2004. The feeling is that if Alinghi believe they have a speed edge, Baird will steer, if they think they are in for a battle, then Holmberg will.

While the syndicate haven’t announced who has the job, the noise around Valencia is Baird has been given the nod. With winning the start and first cross so vital, Julie Ash and Peter Lester take a look at the styles of both men.

The last time we spoke to Ed Baird, he said he doesn’t drink coffee. It is not that the Alinghi helmsman doesn’t like it – he just thinks he’s hyped up enough already.

With the rumour mill suggesting that it will be Baird who drives the Swiss boat in the America’s Cup match, controlling that energy and those nerves could require something stronger than coffee.

Whoever does get the helming job at Alinghi will carry a huge burden. Not only are they defending the cup, they are replacing the most successful helmsman in America’s Cup history in Russell Coutts.

Baird has a connection with New Zealand. He was the backup helmsman/coach of Team New Zealand in 1995 when they won the America’s Cup off San Diego and in the last cup worked as a commentator.

Baird is quite a conservative helmsman. He is very easy on the boat, very smooth.

He is controlled and doesn’t take too many risks in terms of where he puts the boat. He is quite passive in the prestart. In some ways his style is even more passive than Dean Barker.

If Alinghi think they are quicker they may go for Baird. If they are expecting a gun fight they may go for Holmberg.

Lester: “I think Ed is in many ways a milder version of Russell Coutts. You don’t see Ed going for a king hit.”

But some wonder how Baird will handle the pressure, the weight of carrying the America’s Cup on his shoulders.
Lester: “If there is no pressure on him he will be fine. Can he take the heat? That we will find out.”

The relationship, chemistry and communication between the afterguard members is essential.

It is interesting to note that when Baird was at Team New Zealand in 1995 some found his manner quite aggravating.

Considering the Alinghi team consists of several members from that team it will be interesting to observe the chemistry within the group. Dean Barker should feel comfortable against Ed Baird.

Lester: “Against Baird, Barker might be more of the aggressor. Barker is more than happy if there is an opportunity given to him on a plate to go for the kill. Baird is not as aggressive as that.”
Ed Baird

Born: May 17, 1958, USA

2007: Alinghi

2003: Stars & Stripes – sparring helmsman

2000: Young America

1995: Team New Zealand – B boat helmsman/coach

By Julie Ash  and Peter Lester

Peter Lester struggled to fault Team New Zealand’s performance in race one yesterday. But the commentator and former America’s Cup sailor said if he wanted to be “really, really picky”, perhaps their gybing and mainsail selection would be something to discuss in their debrief.

Team New Zealand’s no-nonsense, low-risk strategy proved successful in the opening race of the challenger series, claiming a nail-biting eight-second win over Luna Rossa.

Lester said the Kiwis did everything right in the opening race.

“There was not a mistake. Both teams were pretty flawless but New Zealand were more flawless because they got the right side, which you could put down the weather team. Dean Barker put the boat where he wanted to have it,” said Lester.

“The only area I thought was still there was their gybes. They didn’t have any gybing problems but I sucked my breath in a little bit each time.”

On a few occasions in the round robins and semifinals, Team New Zealand were guilty of executing less than clinical gybes – when the boat changes direction downwind. One of their gybes also looked a bit ropy when they raced Alinghi this week.
“It may be something to do with the set up of the boat,” Lester said. “It is very narrow. The mechanics in the middle of the boat perhaps make it a little tricky.”

In yesterday’s match, Lester also wondered if Team New Zealand had selected a mainsail too heavy for the conditions, which started at 14 to 15 knots but dropped to 10 as the race progressed.

“They had code three main on, which is the heaviest air main. As the wind decreased through the race, they were probably caught out with the wrong mainsail on. The boat probably felt a little bit out of whack.”

Team New Zealand have made it clear their preference is to keep races to within a couple of boat lengths to keep control over their opponent. Big margins are more high risk and can lead to major gains and losses.

“The Kiwis played a low-risk, tough game,” Lester said.

“They got the little jump they needed, they capitalised on that and then from there on in, they seemed to be hell-bent on not letting Luna Rossa go anywhere. They had to give away a little bit of their lead to do that though.”

How race 1 unfolded

Prestart – Advantage Team New Zealand: 1s

While there was a lot of hype about the Dean Barker and James Spithill battle in the pre-start, race one proved to be low key.

In the four times the two sides have clashed over the last year, the team that has entered from the pin end has never won. Team New Zealand changed that yesterday.

Entering from the pin end and disadvantaged side, the Kiwis went for a shallow entry then headed into the dialup. Luna Rossa came out of the dialup relatively early which meant they were committed to one circle. They did a circle which gave the right to Team New Zealand. Luna Rossa wanted the left and gave the Kiwis the right. Team New Zealand crossed the line a second ahead of Luna Rossa on the right.

First beat – Advantage Team New Zealand: 12s

The defining moment was the first cross. After crossing the line both boats sailed on port for a long time. Team New Zealand picked their time to tack back to perfection. Luna Rossa had been going bow up, bow down – mode changing. Team New Zealand tacked back when Luna Rossa had gone bow down and were speed building.

The Kiwis got a bit of pressure and, when they met Team New Zealand, were bow forward. That was absolutely vital. Then they were able to track all the way to the top mark. They then got another little right hand shift near the top mark. There was nothing between the boats in terms of speed upwind.

First downwind leg – Advantage Team New Zealand: 9s

Downwind it was essentially even, although the trailing Luna Rossa did close the gap a bit.

It was interesting that Luna Rossa set up on the left hand side. Normally you set up on the right hand side to get the wind shadow. They wobbled round a bit then gybed away. It was then very difficult for them to get into a position to pass.

Second upwind leg – Advantage Team New Zealand: 11s

It was like the teams were connected by elastic. Team New Zealand would push ahead, Luna Rossa would reel them in. Team New Zealand tactician Terry Hutchinson has said his team prefers to keep their lead to within two boat lengths in order to keep a rein on their opponents.

That was illustrated today. If Team New Zealand are two lengths in the lead they look like they are comfortable. They look like they have really practised being in tight situations. They certainly play a tough, no-nonsense game.

Second downwind run – Team New Zealand win by 8s

Again Luna Rossa came back but Team New Zealand never looked like they were at risk. It was just close. Team New Zealand could have gone to the line but put in a last gybe.

The low-risk strategy is to stay in phase with the wind, which is what they were doing.

If that happens, it then becomes a psychological battle as opposed to a physical one. If you are two-up in a best-of-nine race series you’re virtually halfway there.

Team New Zealand and Luna Rossa are pretty rock solid and have shown they can bounce back from losses. But to come back from 2-0 down would be tough. Momentum is hard to break.

It’s not impossible though.

A lot will depend on the reasons for the losses. If one team are dominant through better boat speed, it will be difficult but, if the losses are due to errors, then a team could still come back and win.

With all the talk about starts, one aspect that hasn’t really been discussed is the role of the bowman.

I have a lot of respect for Luna Rossa’s Kiwi bowman Allan Smith. I regard him as the benchmark bowman.

You look at roles on the boat, you look at the helmsman, the tactician and your trimmers.

But the bowman is so important when putting a team together. They are involved in so much. Not just starting but also lee-bow tacks, dips and mark roundings. If they get it wrong it can be a catastrophe. Looking at James Spithill’s starting, you must attribute some of that to Smith. But Team NZ’s Jeremy Lomas also looks good. You have almost got the old guard Smith verses the young rising star in Lomas. That will be quite intriguing.

There are two other areas that could make the difference in the final outside the boats and the crew.

One is the weather teams. We have now seen a high level of sophistication and tactical use of the information coming from the weather teams.

Luna Rossa are very good in that area, Team NZ are too, so it will be interesting.

The other one is the umpiring. The umpires will come under greater scrutiny. Throughout the challenger series, there have been some grumblings from the teams about some of the umpiring calls.

From the umpires, you are looking for consistency and correct calls and there have been a few mistakes so far.

Interestingly, the umpires are not from neutral countries.

When asked at the start of the challenger series whether there would be neutral umpires picked for the final, regatta director Dyer Jones said no, they’d put the best umpires available on the water.

There shouldn’t be umpires of the nationality of the teams in the final.

The problem is that some of the best umpires, like Oracle’s Russell Green and Team NZ’s Jack Lloyd are working for syndicates, reducing the pool of top cup umpires.

Dickson was out to lunch in his starts against the aggressive Australian helmsman and as a result his American team BMW Oracle Racing failed to lead Luna Rossa around one mark in their six-race series which the Italians won 5-1.

With Barker and Spithill you will see more typical match racing set moves.

Spithill will probably be quite aggressive, although he has become moderate in terms of his moves. But if there is a chance for a penalty he’ll go for it.

He doesn’t throw the boat around the start box, you don’t see big stern wash or huge manoeuvres. He has a smooth approach, much like Barker.

Barker is quite structured in the prestart. He also has the ability to trap his opponent. When Barker is in a dominant position in the prestart he is as aggressive as Spithill. He has had two penalties in the prestart during the regatta so will be wanting to take those out of his game.

It will be more of a classic match race between the two and will come down to which boat has their bow in front at the first cross.

Having your bow slightly ahead allows you to control the match by forcing your opponent to the layline on the upwind beats. Once at the layline, the trailing boat’s tactical options are minimal.

You might see refinements on the boats to optimise their manoeuvrability and acceleration to get a jump off the line to be ahead at the first cross.

There are only a handful of areas where you can pass. One is at the start, where you can dominate. The next is the top mark. The next is if you are close behind and if it is light, you can put a wind shadow on the leading boat. At the bottom mark gate the trailing boat also has an option.

Pre-empting the weather next week could be a big deal. As it get’s hotter, it could get lighter and the wind less dense. That means the boats are producing less power and that needs to be compensated for in the moding and tuning.

Team New Zealand should go into the final with plenty of confidence.

They were always dominant in their semifinal against the Spanish but were upset twice by what was a pretty quick boat.

Getting into the semifinals was Desafio Espanol’s goal. After that it was just a celebration and a good time. Tipping up Team New Zealand once was great, twice, wonderful.

In their last race the New Zealanders were in their element and they smoked them, which was a great way to go into the final.

The other semifinal, between Oracle and Luna Rossa, was a bit of a revelation. The fact Oracle didn’t win a start, and was never first at any mark in the whole series, is amazing. There were two things that set that up.

The race they lost against the China Team because of gear failure was huge. If they had won they would have been the top qualifier and wouldn’t have sailed against Luna Rossa.

The other turning point for Oracle was their loss to Team New Zealand in the final race of round two.

It is believed that created a lot of aggravation in the crew and words were said. They were absolutely hammered by Team New Zealand.

In that race it looked like Team New Zealand used new sails up the beat. They didn’t just rock the boat, they sank it. When it came to the semifinals the die was cast for Oracle to come apart.

Luna Rossa’s victory was a wonderful win, brilliantly sailed, but there is a question mark about the quality of the team they came up against.

The quality of Oracle by the second race was poor. What the semifinal will be remembered for is Dickson losing control and the team falling apart.

The Italian team has jumped out to a 4-1 lead in its first-to-five Semi Final series against the American challenger.

In his place, tactician Gavin Brady is promoted to skipper/tactician.

And back-up helmsman Sten Mohr, who last sailed USA 98 against China Team in Round Robin Two, will steer the boat as helmsman.

“We brought our best package in the Semi Finals, but we have not achieved the results we were hoping for, so in my capacity as CEO I fully support any moves that will give us a chance to win,”

said Dickson in a statement.

“We are a fighting team and will never give up…”

The decision is crazy. You have to feel for Mohr.

The situation is similar to the New Zealand Challenge in 1992 where Rod Davis and David Barnes were replaced by Russell Coutts and Brad Butterworth. The move didn’t work. Coutts and Butterworth hadn’t spent enough time sailing the boat and therefore made little difference.

For Chris Dickson this could spell the end. He has had the most funding and resources of all the teams and he has failed to deliver again. Remember this is his second campaign for Oracle.

Designer Bruce Farr may also be a similar boat.

If anything this proves that all the money in the world can’t buy you the America’s Cup.

Although we have seen challenger series in the past where one team has been completely dominant and gone on to win the cup, like Team New Zealand in 1995, the harder the challenger series is, the better prepared the challenger will be.

Given the front end of this regatta was a disaster, with the wind conditions and the delays, now that we are in the semifinals the teams are getting some good, tough, competition.

There are two schools of thought on that, though. If you win your semifinal match easily, say 5-1 or 5-2, you do get the bonus of saving your equipment and people. You buy a bit of time, which is valuable at this stage.

If you have to fight it out right to the end you become race hardened, but at the same time it is tough on your equipment and your people.

In-house racing is not the same. The challenger series is real. Teams are trying things, altering their boats, briefing, debriefing while under pressure to perform.
Now that the conditions have settled in Valencia, it can be one-dimensional, where one side is heavily favoured.

Because there is little difference in boat speed between the top four teams, if you are behind it will be extremely difficult to get around someone getting first pick of the wind.

Therefore, starting well is going to be crucial.

Luna Rossa’s James Spithill is the best starter at the moment. If the conditions are very one-dimensional he is very dangerous.

Team New Zealand’s Dean Barker is probably next. He has been going well, aside from the hiccup against the Spanish in race three.

BMW Oracle Racing’s Chris Dickson, however, is in a bit of a trough when it comes to starting. But that can easily change.

The conditions will probably even up a bit. In June last year the conditions were a bit more mixed and not so one-sided.

Each time you have a subtle change in conditions the boats look different.

In Auckland the harsher conditions led to boats being more dominant. In Valencia the light winds and sea state tend to have an equalising effect.

You are going to have upsets in this venue, that is just the way it is.

Whichever challenger goes though to the America’s Cup match will be match hardened in starting, tactically and positioning wise.

Then it comes down to: have they got the equipment?

We won’t know the answer to that until race one. If the challenger is even in boat speed, then it bodes well for them.

Well Emirates Team New Zealand are just two wins away from making the final of the Louis Vuitton Cup.

In their match against the Spanish today Dean Barker had a cracker of a start. It was great.

They charged over the line at pace and were able to get bow forward on the Spanish at the first cross. They then bounced them out to the right and edged ahead, then extended round the course.

Chris Dickson’s BMW Oracle Racing are in a bit of trouble trailing Luna Rossa 3-1.

The American’s aren’t nailing their starts. Today James Spithill beat them off the line again Luna Rossa then got the first shift, got bow forward and that was it.

There was a huge (over 2km) separation on the second beat and it initially looked like Oracle had caught up.

However when the boats came back together Luna Rossa were about six lengths ahead at the top mark. You are never going to get back.
Oracle also broke a flipper on their mast in the prestart.

They broke a headsail foil in the round robin which resulted in a loss against Team China which in turn cost them their place as the top challenger. It is surprising that Oracle, of all the teams, are having gear failure.

Oracle are fast enough but the Luna Rossa afterguard are putting the boat in a better position in the crucial parts of the race.

It is a tough road back for Oracle but you would never write them off.

It is difficult to say whether Team New Zealand actually did much to NZL92 between the round robins and the semifinals. They haven’t done a mode change during the round robins or semifinals. By that we mean they have not changed their rudder, keel bulb, etc.

The boat still looks to have the same bulb – the shorter one with the Kiwi flag on it. They may have a new rig in the boat, but it is still one that has four spreaders. A new rig may be a little stiffer, a little lighter and further refined.

It did look like they changed to a different style of mainsail after round robin one. The first one they used looked quite flat and was maybe aimed at more wind. The one they are using now looks a little rounder in the back. But it is very hard to pick because they do a damn good job at making the sails look the same. The layout and the construction is the same.

The challengers are allowed to use only 45 sails during the Louis Vuitton Cup. So it’s important to try to save your sails for the big matches. If Team New Zealand go on to beat Desafio Espanol comfortably from 2-1 up it will mean they have been able to save some new sails. That could be valuable down the track.

It looks like Team New Zealand have improved their downwind sails a lot from last year. It looks like their sail shapes are a lot more forgiving and don’t wobble around as much as they did. They look quite stable. On the whole the team looks solid.

Like all of the teams Team New Zealand are not keen for people to shoot photographs down on to their deck. Deck photos are valuable. You can work out the geometry. You can see where the grinders are on the boat, where the rudder is, where the genoa track is, how big the J measurement is (from the front of the mast to the forestay is). You can also work out the beam of the boat. As one of the narrowest in the competition, for Team New Zealand, that is perhaps something they would like to protect.

BMW Oracle Racing, USA98

It looks like Oracle are still playing around with different configurations to match their opposition. The team did get issued a new measurement certificate on Wednesday. If teams want to change anything significant on their boats they have to get it re-measured. Teams have to have a measurement certificate, which proves their boats comply with the rules, otherwise they are unable to race. It looks like Oracle could be trying to speed their boat up a little bit upwind and trade off a bit downwind to match Luna Rossa.

Luna Rossa look to have sped their boat up on the upwind and traded a bit downwind.

Oracle also have a jumper-less rig which looks pretty nice. They also have ceramic winches, which reduces a bit of weight in the boat. Every kilo you can take out of the boat you can put into the keel. In most of the teams now the winching has been developed in a big way. The winch components are now lower in the floor, dropping the centre of gravity.

Like Alinghi, Oracle have paid a lot of attention to detail. Their sail programme looks nice. They will be using fresh sails against Luna Rossa.

Down track that means they will have burned off a bit more of their ‘Gucci’ gear than Team New Zealand.

Alinghi, SUI100

While the challengers are battling away on the Mediterranean, the two slick red and black Alinghi boats can often been seen hurtling down the coast. On occasions they have appeared ghost-like, emerging through the hazy Valencia conditions.

In the early stages of their campaign Alinghi got a bit stroppy when people tried to photograph part of the deck where the mast connects to it. Maybe they were trying to hide something in relation to their rig, maybe it was something to do with their keel.

It has since been revealed that one or maybe more of the teams has asked the measurer a series of questions relating to the keel. Have Alinghi come up with a way of preventing the keel fin from deflecting under the weight of the 19 tonne keel bulb? Looking at their boats it is difficult to say. Like Oracle, Alinghi have jumper-less rigs, designed to reduce drag by eliminating the jumper near the top of the mast. They are believed to be effective in Valencia where the wind is rather mellow compared with, well, let’s say, Auckland.

The detailing on the Alinghi boats is immaculate. They look like the designers have spent a lot of time on attention to detail, examining everything that might cut down drag both hydro-dynamically and aero-dynamically.

The boats aside, it is believed Alinghi are about to embark on another series of defender trials. The aim of the trials is to fine-tune their crew-work and assess helmsmen Ed Baird and Peter Holmberg.

Rumour has it that if Alinghi think they have a boat-speed advantage the conservative Baird will steer, if not they will got for the more aggressive Holmberg

Luna Rossa, ITA94

The syndicate appear to have a new rig in the boat. Luna Rossa seem to be quite twitchy about people being in their yard.

What they are trying to hide is unclear. Again, it could be something in the keel area.

The Luna Rossa boat is the most radical here. It is very hard in the bilge, very slab-sided and very flat along the bottom. The boat looks good in flat water, maybe not so great in waves.

They look to have done a mode change in between the round robin and the semis to speed the boat up upwind.

It has been suggested the boat has a new bulb, a new rudder, and new fin. That would suggest they have pitched the boat to go upwind and then “hang on” downwind. Against Oracle, they have been quick upwind but have struggled a bit downwind. That could be down to pressure, wind shifts or simply not being quick enough.

Luna Rossa may have decided they are not going to match Oracle’s boat speed so have decided to sail their own race. Something which does come naturally to them.
Desafio Espanol, ESP97

Like BMW Oracle Racing, Desafio Espanol were also issued a new measurement certificate ahead of race three.

Like the Americans, Desafio Espanol were going well downwind but needed to find something more upwind.

Because of the short time frame the change may have been a rudder change or a change to the wings on the keel. A bigger rudder would give them a bit more grip and lift upwind.

Increasing the pitch on the wings improves performance upwind, but also increase drags, making the boat a touch slower downwind. The Spanish had to do something to match the Kiwis upwind. The Spanish boat is quite a tidy package. Their sail and rig programmes both look good.

Luna Rossa will have to attack. If it becomes a boat-on-boat race, Oracle are a bit quicker.

Also if Oracle get two races ahead they’ll beat the Italians comfortably.

If Luna Rossa could get up on Oracle in the early races then it will put Chris Dickson under pressure and pressure affects teams in different ways.

Luna Rossa are making a lot of changes to their boat – changing the keel, bulb and rig – which can be risky.

Is it a reaction or was it planned? Oracle are also understood to have a lot more new gear coming. It is understood they are testing a new bulb.

Oracle and Team New Zealand are going to be very similar hardware-wise. They’ll each have their strengths and weaknesses in the different conditions.

Team New Zealand won’t have any difficulty with Desafio Espanol in the semifinals. The Spanish have reached their goal and they have said that. New Zealand should win 5-0.
It is very apparent Team New Zealand are very settled with their equipment. I don’t even know if they are going to alter the boats now.

It looked like NZL92 was configured for 9-11 knots. Once the boat leans over, and it does lean over easily because it is so narrow, it picks up its waterline length and sails long. When that has happened it has looked potent – at least even in speed to Oracle.

I would discount the last race against Oracle. Oracle did it to themselves. Team New Zealand are not 1m 34s quicker. When they come together again in the final, it will be a lot closer.

The New Zealanders went into the series as the top challenger and the expectation was that they would roll on but they got a huge reality check. Down the track it could be a good thing because there is nothing like a good shake-up to get Kiwi teams going.

Losing strategist Adam Beashel to injury and the first race loss to Mascalzone rattled them.

They went on to lose to Luna Rossa on penalty and were then sailed around by Oracle to finish the first round robin third.

But the potential was always there and it was only a matter of time before the systems began to work.

We have seen them regroup from a similar situation last year and they did again this time, finishing round robin two undefeated. They are still two or three races away from their best. Winning is a habit.

There were two teams that didn’t quite live up to expectation in the round robin competition – Victory Challenge and Mascalzone Latino.

The Victory Challenge boat didn’t look that good in the light, shifty conditions early in round one.

When the wind got a bit stronger they looked all right. They were a team that didn’t get a lot of their funding until quite late. When they did get the money they ran out of time.

Mascalzone Latino looked very good after the last pre-regatta. Their second boat looked quite fast. But they were fined twice during the regatta for silly things – using the wrong paint on their boat and not attaching their topmast backstay correctly. They were slack and should have known better

Last week the talk was of BMW Oracle Racing’s slick gun-metal grey race yacht, USA98, which set the benchmark in round one of the challenger series.

This week the discussion has moved onto the Oracle afterguard following their come-from-behind wins over Team Shosholoza, Victory Challenge and now Luna Rossa.

These victories will go a long way towards securing the syndicate the desirable number one spot at the end of the round robin competition on Wednesday – giving them the right to choose their semifinal opponent.

While Oracle skipper/helmsman Chris Dickson will be disappointed about his team’s starts, he will be happy with his crew’s composure and their ability to regain the lead.

Because the racing conditions in Valencia are light and fickle and with just tiny differences in boat speed – the performance of the afterguard is proving crucial.

Not just starting and positioning the boat well but also being able to get past an opponent from behind.

Midway through round two, as you would expect, the afterguards in the top three teams – BMW Oracle Racing, Luna Rossa and Emirates Team New Zealand – have proved to be the most polished. Yachting commentator Peter Lester said that BMW Oracle Racing were going well and the relationship between Dickson and his tactician [fellow New Zealander] Gavin Brady appeared strong.

“If Chris Dickson can keep his head on the job, which he is doing, and not get distracted or waylaid by other activities they are a real danger,” Lester said.

“If Chris keeps believing in Gavin and not overruling him when the heat really comes on they are right there.”

Lester said that, equally as potent as Oracle were the Luna Rossa afterguard, spearheaded by Australian helmsman James Spithill.

“James Spithill’s stats say he is the best starter. He has always been a good starter. I think his boat placement and mark roundings, I think they are right here.

“I am not sure how that afterguard as a team are working with James and then Torben Grael and then Francesco de Angelis.”

While Team New Zealand skipper/helmsman Dean Barker has copped plenty of flak from the international media for his efforts in the first round, Lester believes Barker will be fine.

“I think Dean has settled down. Maybe he doesn’t fire early on. He didn’t fire in act 10 and 11 [cup pre-regattas] and came back in act 12 and killed them.

“As long as he is supported correctly from the guys around him, I think he is fine.”

Lester believes the loss of key strategist Adam Beashel, to injury, has affected the New Zealand afterguard.

“I think [back-up strategist] Mark [Mendelblatt] has done a good job. It is a really difficult job to come in as a substitute.

“I think Adam has a lot of respect from the Kiwi guys on the boat. Him not being there has made them look a little bit vulnerable.”

Ben Ainslie has limited match racing experience.

Yachting commentator Peter Lester believes replacing helmsman Dean Barker with triple Olympic medallist Ben Ainslie is not an option for Team New Zealand.

Barker has come under fire from some of the international media for his performances in the early stages of the Louis Vuitton Cup.

“I am not in the corner of Barker being under pressure from Ainslie,” Lester said. “Absolutely not. It would be a huge mistake. If they wanted to consider that it should have been done two years ago. It is a non-issue.”

Of Team New Zealand’s three round-one losses, only the one against Luna Rossa – where they copped a penalty in the pre-start – was Barker’s fault. And that was marginal.

Team New Zealand’s losses against Mascalzone Latino and BMW Oracle Racing were the result of mistakes by the afterguard, not Barker alone. However, sailing is not the only reason Barker has come under fire. The Team New Zealand skipper has also been criticised for fronting up to only half of the media briefings after round one.

Lester said Barker doesn’t always look comfortable in media situations, and therefore it is in the team’s best interests to look after him. But that is not uncommon in yachting.

You would not expect to see Oracle skipper Chris Dickson after a series of losses.

The exception is Russell Coutts. “He used to front up when he lost and send someone else when he won,” Lester said.

Early in the campaign Team New Zealand managing director Grant Dalton decided Barker would steer the boat. At the time some thought it was a bold move by Dalton, putting all his eggs in Barker’s basket – the man who most associate with the 2003 defeat.

But in some ways Dalton’s call was understandable. Ainslie, although a talented sailor, has limited match racing experience.

Barker is a lot more experienced and when he is on form there are few people who can beat him – as shown in last year’s final match racing regatta when he blitzed both Oracle and Alinghi.

If Barker was sailing like that now, it is unlikely the Barker/Ainslie debate would have arisen.

The other problem Dalton faced at the start of the campaign was that he had an entirely new afterguard.

To get them to gel, the group had to sail together in the pre-regattas, which started in 2004, which left little time to experiment with Ainslie.

Had they thought Barker was not up to the job then Ainslie needed to have sailed in some of those pre-regattas. To throw Ainslie on the boat now, Lester said, would be unfair.

In 1992 a similar scenario emerged when Rod Davis and David Barnes were booted off NZL20 in favour of Russell Coutts and Brad Butterworth, who proved no better. In fact they were probably worse, having had limited sailing time on the boat.

However, Barker is sailing better in round robin two and, as Lester points out, his statistics are not that bad. In the 86 races over the past three years, Barker has crossed the start line first in 50 per cent of the races and more importantly, led around the first mark 84 per cent of the time.

Oracle’s Dickson has similar percentages – crossing the start line first in 50 per cent of his races and ahead at the top mark 75 per cent of the time.

Luna Rossa’s James Spithill has the best starting percentage, banging his boat over first 56 per cent of the time. But at the top mark Luna Rossa were the worst of the big three, rounding first 73 per cent of the time.

However, starting statistics do not take into account the favoured side.

It is also important to remember the New Zealand afterguard have been affected by the loss of regular strategist Adam Beashel, who injured himself a week before the challenger series started.

Lester also points out that Dickson had two ordinary starts against Team Shosholoza and Victory Challenge yet no one is calling for his head.

“Starting is a bit of an art, not a science. While Dean’s stats are not as good as [James] Spithill’s they are not that bad. They are not perfect but they are not that bad.”

* Team New Zealand were scheduled to face Desafio Espanol and Team Shosholoza overnight. Tonight they meet United Internet Team Germany. Racing was postponed yesterday because of thunderstorms.

Future employment can be a distraction for America’s Cup teams around this time.

Now that the Louis Vuitton Cup final and the Cup match is close, people are understandably beginning to think about their next job – whether it is another cup campaign, a position on the TP52 circuit or the round-the-world race. In terms of the America’s Cup it has been suggested key New Zealanders in Alinghi will move on after this cup, which means that the syndicate may be in the market.

BMW Oracle Racing boss Larry Ellison has said they will compete in the next cup while Luna Rossa and Desafio Espanol have also expressed some interest in continuing if the cup stays in Europe.

Representatives from the new British team Origin, including managing director Kiwi Mike Sanderson, have also been in Valencia. The future of Team New Zealand is a little more uncertain. At this stage I am not sure managing director Grant Dalton can offer his people anything.

We all remember the 2000 defence where there was a mass exodus of team members and intellectual property. Team New Zealand have plenty of people their rivals would be eyeing up. It can be very distracting for the team. They have one eye on the racing and one on their next role.

You have to sympathise with them. Many have families and need to have a job. You can’t blame them for considering offers or making a few inquiries.

It is very hard for teams to do anything about it. They will be concerned that there is a risk that in a few weeks’ time a whole lot of knowledge will walk out the door. There is a bit of a grey area as to what is yours and what isn’t. I am sure the teams have within their employment contracts intellectual property clauses and personnel guarantees.

However, personal knowledge is a little more difficult to control. I guess all that teams can do is appeal to the integrity of their own team members until after the cup.

But life goes on. You can’t have a restraint of trade in this game when what people are selling is their expertise as sailors, designers, technicians or boat builders.

This is the first time we have seen NZL92 race. It is a development of their first boat, NZL84, but looks like it has been optimised for lighter winds, which wouldn’t surprise me for this venue.

It also looks as if they might have pushed the downwind window a bit. NZL84 was pretty quick down wind. This boat looks even quicker. The reasons for that could be the fin, bulb, hull shape, sail development – or all of the above. There has been work done in that area.

In terms of the evolution of their boats, they certainly tested the water with NZL84 and liked the result after act 12 (which they won), and it just seems like they have pushed a little harder.

NZL92 might be a bit narrower, but if so only a touch. It is more in the refining of that concept. NZL92 seems quite manoeuvrable. Maybe NZL84 was, too, but NZL92 looks to have some nice acceleration in the pre-start.

Some of that is the way they sail the boat, some of it might be something going on underneath, like the size of rudder in relation to the bulb.

They have stayed with four spreader rigs. Everyone else has got three. They seem happy with that. Hardware wise, they are in a good position.

In terms of the crew, their first race loss to Mascalzone Latino shook the hell out of them. It was a really bad performance.

What is important is what looks to have happened after that. I assume they had a round-table, a heart-to-heart and what we are seeing now is a focused, defined game plan and defined roles within the crew. There is no waffle.

It reminds me a bit of the way they were sailing last year. There are a few parallels to last year, actually. Act 10 was not a great regatta for them but when they regrouped a month later were sailing a lot better.

The effect of losing strategist Adam Beashell to injury is still significant. There is a hole there.

Mark Mendelblatt is going well, but I think they miss Beashell. But they are coping.

Terry Hutchinson [tactician], Kevin Hall [navigator] and Ray Davies [strategist] seem to be working well. I think that, overall, the afterguard is doing a good job.

They have a good relationship with the weather team and that confidence in one another is important.

We don’t talk much about the guys in the front of the boat, like Matthew Mason [mastman], Barry McKay [in the pit], and grinders Rob Waddell and Jono McBeth, but they are dependable and strong. But seeing Mason in the breeze the other day – he is a powerhouse.

So, after a week, Team New Zealand are going okay. They are on track for the semis. That is when you can expect to see the game go up a notch.

Well, to state the obvious it wasn’t exactly the start to the Louis Vuitton Cup Team New Zealand were looking for.

A 15 second loss to Mascalzone Latino. The Kiwis were simply outfoxed in the pre-start. Their plan didn’t work. In the last minute and a half they ended up on the left.

They started on the left and went to the left and that looked okay but a right hand shift came through and Mascalzone were the major benefactors.

By mark one they were 29s ahead. You have to win the start and the first cross and Team New Zealand didn’t. From there they didn’t recover. Mascalzone looked just fine.

It is difficult to gauge how the boats compared because there was always more pressure on the right. But it is probably fair to say at best Team New Zealand’s NZL92 was only even up wind with Mascalzone’s ITA99.

Positives for Team New Zealand? Their downwind speed looked good. Their gennakers looked good. We always thought it would be a tough race but Team New Zealand didn’t get the start.

In the past Mascalzone would have made a mistake but in this race they sailed flawlessly. They have got a good boat in those conditions and they are sailing it well. Team New Zealand won’t be their only scalp.

Of the others BMW Oracle and Luna Rossa creamed their opponents. Oracle looked fast but you would expect them to look fast against the opposition they had.

So that’s it day one done and dusted. Team New Zealand face +39 and Areva Challenge in day two. Unfortunately the forecast is not looking good.